According to data released by the General Administration of Customs of my country, in March this year, my country's iron ore imports exceeded 100 million tons (approximately 10.21 million tons), an increase of 12.97% from February this year and a year-on-year increase of 19.05%. Among them, the total amount of iron ore purchased by my country from Australia in March was 61.398 million tons, an increase of 13.1% year-on-year. As my country's demand for iron ore continues to increase, the price of this bulk commodity has also remained high.
According to market news, on April 20, the main iron ore contract 2109 of my country's Dalian Commodity Exchange once soared to 1,110 yuan/ton, setting a record high, a sharp increase of 20.39% from the price of 922 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year.
On the same day, Platts 62% iron ore, which reflects the benchmark price of iron ore, was quoted as high as US$187.75/dry ton, a record high in the past 10 years (since February 2011). You know, the highest record of iron ore prices in history was in May 2011, when the price of iron ore reached US$194/dry ton.
According to a report from ACB News on April 22, the price of iron ore recently reached around US$190, reminiscent of the commodity boom 10 years ago. For Australia, as global demand soars, iron ore prices are likely to rise to a new level. It is expected that the operating costs of the country’s iron ore producers will decrease and profits will increase again.
It is reported that in 2011, the Australian iron ore giant BHP Billiton's iron ore cost was only US$40/ton, but the selling price reached US$190. The analyst pointed out that with the impact of factors such as the upgrade of mining equipment, the current miners' costs have already been cut significantly.
For example, 10 years ago (2011) Rio Tinto's iron ore unit cost was 23 US dollars, this year it is expected to be only 17.7 US dollars. The analyst also said that based on current spot prices, Rio Tinto's 2021 basic profit is expected to reach US$17.69 billion (equivalent to RMB 114.7 billion), a record high.
However, the well-known investment bank Goldman Sachs firmly believes that the demand for iron ore will decline. It is expected that the price will drop by more than 27% within 10 weeks. By the end of June this year, the price of iron ore will return to US$137/ton. As the largest importer of iron ore, my country is also acting to cool down the skyrocketing iron ore market.
On April 20th, my country’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology once again issued an order to intensify supply-side structural reforms, prohibiting new production capacity in steel, cement and other fields within this year, and at the same time, it will step up research on capacity replacement methods for the steel industry
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