Last week, the United States and Europe continued to take action against the export of Chinese cotton and downstream products, and some international brands and international institutions commercially excluded Xinjiang cotton and its products. Affected by these factors, the trend of cotton prices at home and abroad continued to fall sharply before it continued, and the futures fell more than spot goods. Among them, the main contract of Zhengmian futures fell below 15,000 yuan/ton in May, and ICE futures fell below 80 cents/pound.
Last week, the weekly average price index of China Cotton Price Index CC Index (3128B) was 15,550 yuan/ton, down 435 yuan month-on-month; the average weekly price of the Coatlook A index was 88.82 cents/pound, down 3.58 cents month-on-month, and 1% tariffs were discounted by RMB 14,128/ton. , 1,421 yuan lower than the China Cotton Price Index (3128B), and the price difference increased by 127 yuan compared with the previous week. The average weekly average price of CF105, the main contract of cotton on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, was 15,094 yuan/ton, down 532 yuan month-on-month; the average weekly price of ICE cotton futures' recent contract was 8 yuan. 1.88 cents/pound, down 4.18 cents month-on-month.
According to the data of China Fiber Quality Monitoring Center, the national notary inspection volume of cotton in 2020 reached 5.8357 million tons, an increase of 14.29% year-on-year, of which 5.6888 million tons in Xinjiang, an increase of 14.89% year-on-year; and 146,900 tons in the mainland, a year-on-year decrease of 5.08%. It is reported that China is the largest cotton producer, accounting for about 34% of the world's total annual output. India is second, accounting for about 27%, and the United States is third, accounting for about 22%. According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the national cotton output in 2020 was 5.910 million tons, an increase of 21,000 tons or 0.4% over the previous year. Among them, Xinjiang accounts for 76% of the total sown area of the country and contributes 85% of the total output of the country.
According to the statistics of the General Administration of Customs, China imported 690,600 tons of cotton from January to February 2021, an increase of 68.3% year-on-year. Among them, 401,100 tons were imported in January and 289,500 tons were imported in February, all of which reached a high since 2014, and the number of U.S. cotton remained stable first.
According to the analysis of Hehe Futures, cotton imports increased significantly in January and February. On the one hand, it came from the tariff adjustment plan issued by the Tax Commission of the State Council for 2021, lowering the actual import taxes and fees, which increased the enthusiasm of some domestic importers for procurement. On the other hand, because around the Spring Festival, enterprises successively applied for a 1% tariff quota for the new year. , stimulate the customs clearance of imported cotton and accelerate the transaction, and promote cotton enterprises to increase the scale of signing contracts. However, the "Boycott of Xinjiang Cotton Incident" in March directly transmitted the rapid decline of the main domestic cotton futures, with a difference of 380 yuan between high and low prices, and a final decline of 1.1%. Short-term sudden effects disrupt and catalyze commodity seasonal cycles have interfered with the benign development of industries, industries and enterprises.
At present, China's futures pricing ability and experience are not as sufficient as that of the United States. Too many futures varieties in China have triggered the diversion of funds. The varieties with large turnover are always in several major sectors, and the liquidity of a single variety is insufficient, which will be difficult to deal with sudden risks. Hehe Futures believes that in the special period when the process of opening up to the outside world is accelerating, the rational use of agricultural development innovation and supporting futures needs to be changed in difficulties. Futures pricing and functional standardization protection industry are imminent. Strengthening risk management and seeking change in difficulties are the top priority to cope with the complex external environment.
At present, the Chinese market is not only the world's largest clothing consumption market, but also the world's largest textile and clothing supplier. From the supply side, China's cotton supply is currently maintained at the level of about 6 million tons per year, and China's cotton consumption is stable at the level of 8 million tons per year, and there is still a gap of about 2 million tons.
He Futures said that against the backdrop of a warming global cotton consumption, China also needs to replenish effective supply through imports. Therefore, cotton imports remain high or become the norm in the later period. It is recommended that relevant market participants pay close attention to the specific regulation of their quota issuance and the change of cotton cost performance at home and abroad.
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