At present, the income scale ratio of China's automobile and parts industry is about 1:1, which is still different from the ratio of 1:1.7 to automobile power. The parts industry is large but not strong, and there are many shortcomings and breakpoints in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The essence of global automobile industry competition is the competition of supporting systems, that is, the competition of industrial chain and value chain. Therefore, optimizing the upstream and downstream layout of the industry, accelerating the integration and innovation of the supply chain, building an independent, safe and controllable industrial chain, and improving China's position in the global industrial chain are endogenous driving forces and realistic requirements for achieving high-quality development of automobile exports.
The export value of spare parts is generally stable.
1. In 2020, China's spare parts export decline was higher than that of the whole vehicle.
Since 2015, the export of automobile parts (including key parts of automobiles, zero accessories, glass, tires, the same below) has not fluctuated much. Except for the export volume exceeding 60 billion US dollars in 2018, all other years fluctuated around 55 billion US dollars, similar to the annual export trend of the whole vehicle. In 2020, China's total export of automobile products exceeded 71 billion US dollars, and parts accounted for 78.0%. Among them, the export value of vehicles was 15.735 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%; the export value of spare parts was 55.397 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%, which is higher than that of the whole vehicle. Compared with 2019, the monthly difference in spare parts exports in 2020 is obvious. Affected by the epidemic, exports fell to the bottom in February, but returned to the same level last year in March. Due to weak demand in overseas market, it continued to decline for four months, stabilized and rebounded in August, and the export volume continued to operate at a high level from September to December. Compared with the export trend of the whole vehicle, the parts rebounded to the same period last year one month earlier than the whole vehicle, which shows that the parts are more sensitive to the market.
2. The export of auto parts is mainly key parts and zero accessories.
In 2020, China's automobile key parts exports were 23.021 billion US dollars, down 4.7% year-on-year, accounting for 41.6%; zero accessories exports were 19.654 billion US dollars, down 3.9% year-on-year, accounting for 35.5%; automobile glass exports were 1.087 billion US dollars, down 5.2% year-on-year; automobiles Tyre exports of $11.635 billion, down 11.2% year-on-year. Automobile glass is mainly exported to the United States, Japan, Germany, South Korea and other traditional automobile manufacturing countries. The main export markets of automobile tires are the United States, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, the United Kingdom, etc.
Specifically, the main categories of key parts export are frames and brake systems, with exports of 5.041 billion and 4.943 billion US dollars respectively, mainly to the United States, Japan, Mexico and Germany. In terms of zero accessories, body coverings and wheels in 2020 are the main export categories, with export value of 6.435 billion yuan and 4.865 billion US dollars respectively, of which wheels are mainly exported to the United States, Japan, Mexico and Thailand.
3. Export markets are concentrated in Asia, North America and Europe.
Asia (this article refers to the rest of Asia, excluding China, the same below), North America and Europe are the main export markets of China's parts. In 2020, the largest market for China's key component exports was Asia, with exports of $7.494 billion, accounting for 32.6%; North America, with exports of $6.076 billion, accounting for 26.4%; and exports to Europe, US$5.902 billion, accounting for 25.6%. On the zero-annex, exports to Asia accounted for 42.9%; exports to North America accounted for $5,065 billion, or 25.8%; and exports to Europe accounted for $3,371 billion, accounting for 17.2%.
Despite trade frictions between China and the United States, China's exports of U.S. parts and components declined in 2020, the United States is still the largest exporter of China, both key parts and zero annexes. Both exports to the United States account for about 24%, with a total export of more than 10 billion US dollars. Among them, the main export products of key parts are brake system, suspension system and steering system, and the main export products of zero accessories are aluminum alloy wheels, body and electrical lighting devices. Other countries with more export of key parts and zero accessories include Japan, South Korea and Mexico.
4. RCEP Agreement Regional Automobile Industry Chain Export Relevance
In 2020, Japan, South Korea and Thailand are the top three countries in China's automobile key parts and zero-accessory exports in the RCEP Agreement (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) region. The main products exported to Japan are aluminum alloy wheels, body, ignition wiring group, brake system, airbags, etc.; the products exported to South Korea are mainly ignition wiring groups, body, steering systems, airbags, etc.; for Thailand, the main export body, aluminum alloy wheels, steering system, brake system, etc.
Imports of parts have fluctuated in recent years.
1. China's imports of parts increased slightly in 2020.
From 2015 to 2018, China's auto parts imports showed an upward trend year by year; in 2019, there was a large decline, with the import value falling by 12.4% year-on-year; although affected by the epidemic in 2020, due to the strong pull of domestic demand, the import volume was 32.113 billion US dollars, a slight increase of 0. 4%.
Judging from the monthly trend, the import of parts in 2020 showed a trend of low and high behind. The annual lowest point is from April to May, mainly due to insufficient supply caused by the spread of overseas epidemics. Since stabilization in June, in order to ensure the stability of the supply chain, domestic vehicle enterprises have deliberately increased spare parts inventory, and the import of spare parts has always been in high operation in the second half of the year.
2. Key components account for nearly 70% of imports.
In 2020, China's automobile key parts imports were 21.642 billion US dollars, down 2.5% year-on-year, accounting for 67.4%; zero accessories imports were 9.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 7.0% year-on-year, accounting for 29.3%; automobile glass imports were 4.232 billion US dollars, an increase of 20.3% year-on-year; automobile wheels Fetal imports were $6.24 billion, down 2.0% year-on-year.
From the perspective of key parts, transmission imports account for half of the country. In 2020, China imported 10.439 billion US dollars of transmissions, a slight decrease of 0.6% year-on-year, accounting for 48%. The main import source countries are Japan, Germany, the United States and South Korea. This is followed by the frame, petrol/gas engines, which are mainly imported from Germany, the United States, Japan and Austria, and gasoline/gas engines are mainly imported from Japan, Sweden, the United States and Germany.
In terms of zero-accessory imports, the proportion of body coverage is as high as 55%, with imports of $5.157 billion, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year. The main import countries are Germany, Portugal, the United States and Japan. The import value of vehicle lighting devices was $1.929 billion, an increase of 12.5% or 20% year-on-year, mainly from Mexico, the Czech Republic, Germany and Slovakia. It is worth mentioning that with the acceleration of domestic intelligent cockpit technology and supporting facilities, the import of relevant zero accessories has narrowed year by year.
3. Europe is the main import market for parts and components.
In 2020, Europe and Asia will be the main import markets of key automobile parts in China. Of this amount, imports from Europe amounted to $9.77 billion, a slight increase of 0.1% or 45.1% year-on-year; imports from Asia amounted to $9.126 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, or 42.2%. Similarly, the largest import market of the zero annex is also Europe, with imports of $5,992 billion, an increase of 5.4% or 63.6% year-on-year, followed by Asia, with imports of $1,860 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0%, or 19.7%.
In 2020, the main import countries of key automobile parts in China are Japan, Germany and the United States. Among them, imports from the United States increased significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 48.5%. The main imports are transmissions, clutches and steering systems. The source countries of zero-annex imports are mainly Germany, Mexico and Japan. Of this, imports from Germany amounted to $2.39 billion, an increase of 1.5% year-on-year, accounting for 25.5%.
4. In the RCEP agreement area, China has a high degree of dependence on Japanese products.
In 2020, Japan, South Korea and Thailand ranked among the top three countries of China's import of key automobiles and zero accessories from the RCEP agreement region. The main imported products are transmissions and their parts, 1~3L displacement vehicle engines and bodies, which have a high degree of dependence on Japanese products. In the RCEP agreement area, in terms of import value, 79% of transmissions and car automatic transmissions are imported from Japan, 99% of car engines are from Japan, and 85% of the body is from Japan.
The development of parts is closely related to the whole vehicle market.
1. Parts enterprises should walk in front of the whole vehicle.
From the perspective of the policy system, the domestic automobile industry policy is mainly formulated around the whole vehicle, and component enterprises only play the "match role". From the perspective of export, independent brand automobile wheels, glass and rubber tires occupy a place in the international market, while the development of core components with high value added and high profit margin lags behind. As a basic industry, auto parts involve a wide range of parts and have a long industrial chain. Without industrial endogenous driving and coordinated development, it is difficult to make breakthroughs in core technologies. It is worth reflecting on that in the past, the mainframe factory had a one-sided understanding of simply pursuing market dividends, and only maintained a simple supply and demand relationship with upstream suppliers, and did not play a driving role in the front-end industrial chain.
From the perspective of the global component industry layout, with major mainframe factories as the core radiation surroundings, three major industrial chain clusters have been formed around the world: North American industrial chain cluster with the United States as the core and maintained by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement; European industrial chain cluster with Germany and France as the core, radiating Central and Eastern Europe; Asia with China, Japan and South Korea as the multi-core Continental industrial chain cluster. In order to win differentiated advantages in the international market, independent brand car companies need to be good at using the cluster effect of the industrial chain, attach importance to the synergy of the upstream supply chain, increase the strength of front-end design, research and development and integration, and encourage powerful independent component enterprises to go to sea together, or even walk ahead of the whole vehicle.
2. Independent head suppliers usher in a period of development opportunities
The epidemic has a short-term and long-term impact on the global supply of auto parts, which will benefit the leading domestic enterprises with a global production capacity layout. In the short term, the epidemic has repeatedly dragged down the production of overseas suppliers, while domestic enterprises take the lead in resuming work and production. Some orders that cannot be supplied in time may be forced to switch suppliers, providing a window period for domestic component enterprises to expand overseas business. In the long run, in order to reduce the risk of overseas supply outages, more mainframe factories have included independent suppliers in the supporting system, and the import substitution process of domestic core components is expected to accelerate. The automobile industry has the dual attributes of cycle and growth. Under the background of limited market increment, the structural opportunities of the industry are expected.
3. The "New Four Modernizations" will reshape the pattern of the automobile industry chain.
At present, four macro factors, such as policy orientation, economic foundation, social motivation, and science and technology driving, have accelerated and promoted the "new four modernizations" of the automobile industry chain - power diversification, networking, intelligence and sharing. According to different mobile travel needs, the mainframe factory customizes the production of adaptive models; platform production will quickly iterate the appearance and interior of the vehicle; flexible production will help maximize the efficiency of the production line. The maturity of electrification technology, the integration of 5G industry, and the gradual realization of highly intelligent shared driving scenarios will deeply reshape the pattern of the future automobile industry chain. The three-electric system (batteries, motors, electronic controls) driven by the rise of electrification will replace the traditional internal combustion engine and become the absolute core; the main carriers of intelligence - automobile chips, ADAS, and AI support will become new wrestling points; as an important component of networking, C-V2X, high-precision map, and automatic driving technology All four driving factors of policy coordination are indispensable.
Post-market potential provides development opportunities for component enterprises
According to OICA, the global car ownership in 2020 is 1.491 billion. The growing holding capacity provides a strong business channel for the automotive aftermarket, which means that there will be more after-sales service and maintenance demand in the future. China's parts enterprises need to seize this opportunity.
In the United States, as of the end of 2019, there were about 280 million cars in the United States; in 2019, the total mileage of U.S. cars was 3.27 trillion miles (about 5.26 trillion kilometers), with an average age of 11.8 years. The increase of vehicle mileage and the increase of average vehicle age have driven the growth of after-sales spare parts and maintenance expenditure. According to the American Association of Automobile Aftermarket Vendors (AASA), the size of the U.S. automotive aftermarket reached 308 billion U.S. dollars in 2019. The market demand has increased, benefiting the most from enterprises focusing on automotive aftermarket services, including spare parts dealers, repair and maintenance service providers, second-hand car dealers, etc., which is beneficial to China's automobile parts export.
Similarly, the European postmarket has great potential. According to the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (ACEA), the average age of cars in Europe is 10.5 years. At present, the market share of the German vehicle factory system is basically the same as that of independent third-party channels. In the tire, maintenance, beauty, and fragile parts repair and replacement service market, the independent channel system accounts for at least 50% of the market. In the two businesses of electromechanical repair and spraying, the whole vehicle factory system occupies more than half of the market. At present, the auto parts imported from Germany mainly come from OEM suppliers from Central and Eastern Europe such as the Czech Republic and Poland. The products imported from China are mainly tires, brake friction pads, etc. In the future, China's parts enterprises can expand to the European market.
The automobile industry is going through the biggest window period of a hundred years of development. As the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, the auto parts industry is moving with it. It is in the dynamic process of integration, reorganization and competition. It is necessary to seize opportunities, strengthen ourselves and make up for shortcomings. Adhering to independent development and taking the road of internationalization is an inevitable choice for upgrading the automobile industry chain in China.
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